Article

Introduction

A high-profile forecasting paper from Informa Connect Academy — packaged as the “2024 Trillion Dollar Club” analysis — projects that Elon Musk could reach $1 trillion in personal net worth by 2027 if recent growth trends continue. The academy’s ranking treats Musk as the “clear favourite,” and it lists several other ultra-wealthy figures who could follow in the late 2020s if their asset trajectories hold. Informa ConnectThe Guardian

What the report actually says

The forecast is simple in concept: the authors calculate each billionaire’s recent average annual wealth growth and extrapolate that rate forward to estimate when (or whether) an individual would cross the trillion-dollar mark. For Musk, the report used an average annual growth rate close to 110%, projecting that his current fortune (reported in the low-to-mid hundreds of billions) would compound to $1 trillion within a few years. The report enumerates comparable projections for Gautam Adani, Jensen Huang, Prajogo Pangestu, Bernard Arnault and Mark Zuckerberg. Business InsiderHindustan Times

Who else is on the list (highlights)

According to the same analysis, several other billionaires could hit the trillion threshold within the next decade if their recent trajectories persist:

• Gautam Adani — flagged as a likely candidate for 2028 under the report’s assumptions. Hindustan Times
• Jensen Huang and Prajogo Pangestu — named as possible 2028 entries if current growth continues. The Guardian
• Bernard Arnault and Mark Zuckerberg — projected to reach the milestone later (around 2030 in the academy’s model). The Guardian

These names reflect the report’s method (extrapolating recent compound growth) rather than a granular, asset-by-asset risk assessment. Informa Connect

Why the projection is plausible — and why it’s fragile

There are two straightforward reasons the projection attracts attention:

1. Concentrated, high-growth holdings. Much of Musk’s wealth is tied to equity in high-value, growth-sensitive companies (Tesla, SpaceX, other ventures). When those assets rally, his net worth moves dramatically. Business Insider
2. Compounding effect. At very high annual growth rates, wealth compounds fast — a modest base can multiply rapidly on paper.

But the same factors that enable rapid gains can also reverse them. Stock prices are volatile; private valuations (SpaceX, xAI, etc.) are marked and remarked; asset sales, taxes, corporate governance, litigation, macroeconomic shocks, regulatory change or shifts in investor sentiment can sharply reduce paper wealth. In short: extrapolating short-term historical growth into the future is an inherently risky forecasting technique. Multiple outlets covering the Informa analysis highlighted those caveats. The GuardianBusiness Insider

The methodology — simple, transparent, but reductive

Informa’s public materials emphasise the approach: measure historical annualised growth, then project forward. That transparency is useful — readers can see the assumption set — but the method treats wealth growth as a steady, deterministic process. It does not model downside shocks, liquidity constraints, tax policy shifts, or business-specific risks (e.g., an extended slump in EV demand, regulatory action against a core company, or major dilution events). Analysts and journalists who covered the report flagged this as the primary limitation. Informa ConnectThe Guardian

Broader context and reaction

The trillionaire question is as much cultural as it is financial: commentators note the near-mythic curiosity about who will be the first person to cross nine digits of dollars beyond a billion. Yet many economists and social commentators also warn about the social and political implications of extreme wealth concentration. Coverage of the Informa report mixed fascination with scepticism: outlets emphasised the headline figures while also publishing clear caveats about volatility and method. The Guardian

What to watch next

If you’re tracking whether such projections will materialise, key indicators include:

• Public market performance of Tesla, Nvidia and other listed holdings linked to the named individuals.
• Private valuation events for companies like SpaceX or other large private assets (secondary sales, fundraisings, IPOs).
• Regulatory or tax changes that could meaningfully alter after-tax fortunes.
• Major asset divestments or dilutions (sales, stock grants, litigation settlements).

Any of these events could materially change the timeline or make the trillionaire forecast moot.

Conclusion — headline-grabbing, but treat it as an informed thought experiment

Informa Connect Academy’s projection that Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire by 2027 is striking and rooted in a clear, reproducible method (extrapolating recent compound growth). It’s useful as a conversation starter and for illustrating how concentrated, high-growth equity positions produce rapid paper gains. But it’s not a prediction sealed in stone: the path from “on paper” to realised, legally available wealth is long and dependent on many moving parts. Readers should treat the report as an illustrative scenario rather than a financial certainty. Informa ConnectBusiness Insider

Further reading / sources

• Informa Connect Academy — “2024 Trillion Dollar Club” (report and summary). Informa Connect
• The Guardian — coverage summarising the Informa analysis and broader context. The Guardian
• Business Insider — explainer on the projection method and Musk’s wealth exposure. Business Insider
• Hindustan Times — reporting on the list of potential future trillionaires, including Gautam Adani. Hindustan Times